Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$356.72

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 88¢

+50% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,783

Combined PnL+$565.54

Yes4 traders

Total Value$85.2

Total Shares625

Combined PnL-$208.83

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Noavg 72.7¢	$481.34	$581.9	+$99.9	50% 415-417 (832)
DE dedidanc	Noavg 62.4¢	$339.2	$546.02	+$206.82	57% 103-77 (180)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Noavg 27.7¢	$110.28	$349.37	+$238.69	45% 112-138 (250)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$48.24	$57.78	+$9.54	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 72.8¢	$176.54	$32.25	-$147.56	64% 633-352 (985)
HI hithitfarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$32.31	$22.29	-$10.03	58% 640-469 (1109)
0xdc3E831cad<$100	Noavg 49¢	$12.11	$21.72	+$9.59	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$50.38	$17.36	-$34.59	57% 271-203 (474)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$28.7	$13.3	-$16.65	69% 404-180 (584)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 74¢	$9.9	$10.92	+$1.01	39% 175-269 (444)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Invested

$481.34

Value

$581.9

PnL

+$99.9

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

dedidanc

Invested

$339.2

Value

$546.02

PnL

+$206.82

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Invested

$110.28

Value

$349.37

PnL

+$238.69

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$48.24

Value

$57.78

PnL

+$9.54

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.54

Value

$32.25

PnL

-$147.56

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

hithitfarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.31

Value

$22.29

PnL

-$10.03

Record

58%

640-469 (1109)

0xdc3E831cad<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$21.72

PnL

+$9.59

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

KiruaTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.38

Value

$17.36

PnL

-$34.59

Record

57%

271-203 (474)

SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.7

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$16.65

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$1.01

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

1799h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.4%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.