Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 85¢ · $16K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$16.1K

Combined PnL

$90.2

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 85¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares17,979

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No4 traders

Total Value$842.98

Total Shares6,021

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

33 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Yesavg 83¢	$8.1K	$8.3K	+$197.11	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
SK skibabiba	Yesavg 85¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$0.01	87% 95-14 (109)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yes	$993.04	$993.04	+$939.94	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
bosshog	Yesavg 81¢	$810	$850	+$40	72% 1052-415 (1467)
ChungvicularCTR	Noavg 34.4¢	$1.9K	$777.72	$-1.1K	46% 49-57 (106)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$87.42	$61.19	-$21.85	69% 987-450 (1437)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.54	$17	+$17	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$5.88	$3.92	-$1.68	50% 3947-3930 (7877)
StarMaster<$100	Yesavg 80.5¢	$1.52	$1.54	+$0.02	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$0.32	$0.15	-$0.17	29% 2865-6952 (9817)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$8,123.28

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$197.11

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

skibabiba

Yes

Invested

$5,100

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$0.01

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$993.04

Value

$993.04

PnL

+$939.94

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

bosshog

Yes

Invested

$810

Value

$850

PnL

+$40

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

ChungvicularCTR

Invested

$1,913.52

Value

$777.72

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Invested

$87.42

Value

$61.19

PnL

-$21.85

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$17

PnL

+$17

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$1.68

Record

50%

3947-3930 (7877)

StarMaster<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

ratedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.17

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

33 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.