Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 86% (91–15, n=106) · PM monthly #853 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$14.7K
Record
91W / 15L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 106 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#318
Source
PM monthly #853
Trades
70
Markets
140
Volume
$629.0K
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 22 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $20K · now 68¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $15K · now 95¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No $14K · now 92¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (64% of 34)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $11K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $9.3K · now 97¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (57% of 29)
- Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No $9.1K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $8.2K · now 87¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $7.6K · now 84¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (72% of 48)
Specialties
102 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 84¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 90% of 51 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +13%
- Elections
+15 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +20%
- Politics
+7 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 88% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 96% of 91)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.