Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$18.57

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 83¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,192

Combined PnL-$45.51

Yes5 traders

Total Value$272.27

Total Shares1,757

Combined PnL+$26.94

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4920h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 85.4¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$57.23	45% 2406-2976 (5382)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 82¢	$669.89	$694.63	+$20.67	70% 3226-1392 (4618)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 83¢	$667.52	$552	+$0.25	53% 7830-6946 (14776)
LI lissartter	Noavg 85¢	$321.41	$226.08	-$7.33	42% 5383-7429 (12812)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 15.3¢	$183.72	$185.69	+$1.98	41% 2003-2842 (4845)
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$45.57	$65.05	+$19.48	57% 766-585 (1351)
LE LesterDiamond<$100	Noavg 92¢	$23	$21.25	-$1.88	62% 5581-3448 (9029)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$13.47	$13.47	+$4.78	73% 12591-4594 (17185)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$4.16	$4.96	+$0.8	43% 2142-2793 (4935)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.2	$3.1	-$0.1	36% 2153-3855 (6008)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$2,080.12

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$57.23

Record

45%

2406-2976 (5382)

sbimbg

Invested

$669.89

Value

$694.63

PnL

+$20.67

Record

70%

3226-1392 (4618)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$667.52

Value

$552

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

7830-6946 (14776)

lissartter

Invested

$321.41

Value

$226.08

PnL

-$7.33

Record

42%

5383-7429 (12812)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.72

Value

$185.69

PnL

+$1.98

Record

41%

2003-2842 (4845)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.57

Value

$65.05

PnL

+$19.48

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

LesterDiamond<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$21.25

PnL

-$1.88

Record

62%

5581-3448 (9029)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$13.47

PnL

+$4.78

Record

73%

12591-4594 (17185)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.8

Record

43%

2142-2793 (4935)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

36%

2153-3855 (6008)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4920h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.