Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 52¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$77.88

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 52¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,724

Combined PnL-$325.73

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,287

Combined PnL+$247.85

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

32 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe34b8deb3de95e27dc8b9d915d53aa42ca7203a3	Yesavg 54.5¢	$5.4K	$5.1K	-$199.95	— 4-2 (6)
BigMackyG	Yesavg 56.8¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$104.65	20% 108-423 (531)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Noavg 44¢	$831.53	$898.18	+$66.65	38% 20-32 (52)
ScottyNoooCTR	Noavg 35¢	$350	$480	+$125	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
CO cowcatARB<$100	Yesavg 67.8¢	$415.1	$464.58	-$39.56	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.8¢	$433.18	$325.61	-$81.54
└ No leg	Noavg 33¢	$95.54	$138.97	+$41.98
ChungvicularCTR	Noavg 28¢	$78.47	$134.53	+$54.65	46% 49-57 (106)
IM immanuelcan	Yesavg 64¢	$13.15	$104.03	-$22.56	53% 906-789 (1695)
SB sbimbg<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$48.68	$48.68	+$1.43	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Noavg 46.9¢	$38.2	$34.27	+$0.42	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$20.43	$21.55	+$1.12	53% 6689-5886 (12575)

0xe34b8deb3de95e27dc8b9d915d53aa42ca7203a3

Yes

Invested

$5,449.99

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$199.95

Record

—

4-2 (6)

BigMackyG

Yes

Invested

$1,377.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$104.65

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Invested

$831.53

Value

$898.18

PnL

+$66.65

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

ScottyNoooCTR

Invested

$350

Value

$480

PnL

+$125

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

cowcatARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$415.1

Value

$464.58

PnL

-$39.56

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Both legs:

Yes$433.1867.8¢-$81.54

No$95.5433¢+$41.98

ChungvicularCTR

Invested

$78.47

Value

$134.53

PnL

+$54.65

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

immanuelcan

Yes

Invested

$13.15

Value

$104.03

PnL

-$22.56

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

sbimbg<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.68

Value

$48.68

PnL

+$1.43

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Invested

$38.2

Value

$34.27

PnL

+$0.42

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$20.43

Value

$21.55

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

32 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.0%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$85.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

185.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.