Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 76¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$190.47

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 75.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares11,048

Combined PnL+$327.73

No5 traders

Total Value$820.81

Total Shares3,283

Combined PnL-$137.26

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME Melody626	Yesavg 73¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$131.57	58% 705-521 (1226)
PI pieped	Yesavg 72¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$175	42% 71-100 (171)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 72¢	$11.75	$497.79	+$17.34	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
SU supersmardCTR	Noavg 28¢	$502.84	$448.17	-$63.63	39% 46-71 (117)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 30.4¢	$300.97	$251.25	-$49.72	36% 16059-28074 (44133)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$74	$76	+$1.5	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$79.17	$61.25	-$17.92	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$56	$50	-$7	57% 3068-2356 (5424)
DE dedidanc<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$21.08	$23.56	+$2.33	57% 103-77 (180)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$8.91	$10.13	+$1.01	70% 3189-1369 (4558)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$3,841.63

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$131.57

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$3,600

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$175

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$11.75

Value

$497.79

PnL

+$17.34

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

supersmardCTR

Invested

$502.84

Value

$448.17

PnL

-$63.63

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$300.97

Value

$251.25

PnL

-$49.72

Record

36%

16059-28074 (44133)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$74

Value

$76

PnL

+$1.5

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$79.17

Value

$61.25

PnL

-$17.92

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$56

Value

$50

PnL

-$7

Record

57%

3068-2356 (5424)

dedidanc<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.08

Value

$23.56

PnL

+$2.33

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$1.01

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.2%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.