Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 98¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$424.52

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 98.2¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares15,559

Combined PnL+$424.52

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI Vilgefortz	Yesavg 96.4¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$108	71% 196-82 (278)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 95.9¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$75.66	77% 1408-416 (1824)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 95.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$41.73	76% 102-32 (134)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 93.6¢	$854.7	$1.3K	+$59.02	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
AngryRhino	Yesavg 95.8¢	$958.03	$981	+$22.97	69% 133-59 (192)
probability	Yesavg 92¢	$872.25	$931.33	+$59.08	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 94¢	$557.1	$581.49	+$24.1	96% 631-24 (655)
IM immanuelcan	Yesavg 90¢	$4.06	$308.28	+$20.92	53% 906-789 (1695)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 92.8¢	$164.48	$173.87	+$9.31	85% 311-57 (368)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 94.4¢	$95.25	$98.97	+$3.73	76% 11352-3524 (14876)

Vilgefortz

Yes

Invested

$5,784

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$108

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$3,336.11

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$75.66

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$1,533.43

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$41.73

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$854.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$59.02

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

AngryRhino

Yes

Invested

$958.03

Value

$981

PnL

+$22.97

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

probability

Yes

Invested

$872.25

Value

$931.33

PnL

+$59.08

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$557.1

Value

$581.49

PnL

+$24.1

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

immanuelcan

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$308.28

PnL

+$20.92

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$164.48

Value

$173.87

PnL

+$9.31

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.25

Value

$98.97

PnL

+$3.73

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.