Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 94¢ · $7K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 94.3¢

+19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,473

Combined PnL+$1.0K

No2 traders

Total Value$0.68

Total Shares12

Combined PnL-$5.02

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

150 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
wagwanshawty	Yesavg 94.1¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$6.3	— 10-5 (15)
FL FlyingPlaty	Yesavg 89.4¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$106.74	98% 982-16 (998)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 75.9¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$277.55	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
FA failstober	Yesavg 12¢	$76.97	$606.77	+$529.8	26% 351-985 (1336)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 95.6¢	$143.15	$141.29	-$1.86	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 7.9¢	$10.71	$128.25	+$117.53	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
Tenebrus7<$100	Yesavg 63.3¢	$17.09	$25.46	+$8.37	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
yen4u<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$18.75	$21.57	+$2.82	86% 807-136 (943)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 67.8¢	$5.38	$0.45	-$4.93	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$0.32	$0.23	-$0.09	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

wagwanshawty

Yes

Invested

$2,291.79

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$6.3

Record

—

10-5 (15)

FlyingPlaty

Yes

Invested

$1,958.8

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$106.74

Record

98%

982-16 (998)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$1,484.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$277.55

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

failstober

Yes

Invested

$76.97

Value

$606.77

PnL

+$529.8

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$143.15

Value

$141.29

PnL

-$1.86

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$10.71

Value

$128.25

PnL

+$117.53

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Tenebrus7<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.09

Value

$25.46

PnL

+$8.37

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

yen4u<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.75

Value

$21.57

PnL

+$2.82

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$4.93

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.09

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

150 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.