Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$100.84

Combined PnL

-$330.6

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 0.1¢

-94% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$37.46

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$1.33

Yes9 traders

Total Value$63.38

Total Shares65,610

Combined PnL-$331.93

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

176 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PaddyAlpha<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$36.13	$37.46	+$1.33	59% 986-684 (1670)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$126.5	$28.51	-$97.99	41% 166-240 (406)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$117.68	$26	-$91.68	67% 751-378 (1129)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$38.06	$4.7	-$33.36	71% 968-396 (1364)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$2.22	-$32.53	47% 83-94 (177)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$5.31	$1.04	-$4.27	68% 2074-957 (3031)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2.84	$0.46	-$2.38	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.34	$0.34	-$2.48	7% 14-187 (201)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$0.09	-$67.26	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	+$0.01	86% 3499-571 (4070)

PaddyAlpha<$100

Invested

$36.13

Value

$37.46

PnL

+$1.33

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$126.5

Value

$28.51

PnL

-$97.99

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$117.68

Value

$26

PnL

-$91.68

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.06

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$33.36

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$32.53

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$4.27

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$2.38

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$2.48

Record

14-187 (201)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,562.89

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$67.26

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

176 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.