Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 98¢ · $23K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$23.3K

Combined PnL

-$487.08

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 98.3¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$22.7K

Total Shares23,097

Combined PnL+$955.55

Yes4 traders

Total Value$565.8

Total Shares32,332

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 88% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 94¢	$19.1K	$20.0K	+$863.98	97% 140-4 (144)
Slowroasted	Noavg 94¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$63.75	88% 1990-279 (2269)
elmcap2	Noavg 96.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$16.05	89% 1665-205 (1870)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$1.8K	$508.95	$-1.2K	46% 49-57 (106)
KR Krass	Noavg 93¢	$186	$196.5	+$10.5	74% 452-155 (607)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 6.8¢	$114.93	$31	-$83.93	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
wish-<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$29.64	$30.21	+$0.57	79% 1176-319 (1495)
cookiejarCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$117.71	$20.6	-$97.11	69% 178-80 (258)
AV aviato<$100	Noavg 92¢	$9.2	$9.83	+$0.63	84% 2440-449 (2889)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$18	$5.25	-$12.75	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
57 57284910<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$3.42	$3.49	+$0.07	100% 23-0 (23)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$19,109.24

Value

$20.0K

PnL

+$863.98

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

Slowroasted

Invested

$1,410

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$63.75

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

elmcap2

Invested

$1,023.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$16.05

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,757.78

Value

$508.95

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

Krass

Invested

$186

Value

$196.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.93

Value

$31

PnL

-$83.93

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

wish-<$100

Invested

$29.64

Value

$30.21

PnL

+$0.57

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

cookiejarCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.71

Value

$20.6

PnL

-$97.11

Record

69%

178-80 (258)

aviato<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$0.63

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$12.75

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

57284910<$100

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.49

PnL

+$0.07

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 88% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.