Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 58¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 58.1¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,946

Combined PnL+$707.92

No6 traders

Total Value$768.14

Total Shares973

Combined PnL+$305.41

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Yesavg 19.9¢	$372.06	$1.1K	+$711.97	61% 346-218 (564)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 50¢	$208.01	$350.73	+$142.73	42% 1898-2620 (4518)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 66.3¢	$415.72	$272.88	+$140.38	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 48.8¢	$44.08	$76.22	+$32.14	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 40.1¢	$30.16	$31.65	+$1.48	36% 635-1125 (1760)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$33.45	$29.03	-$4.43	42% 5988-8169 (14157)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$31.27	$26.23	-$5.03	35% 704-1298 (2002)
VE VerilyWinningly<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$14.53	$7.64	-$6.89	17% 221-1066 (1287)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.1¢	$2.01	$2.55	+$0.54	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.1¢	$1.66	$2.11	+$0.45	56% 3736-2986 (6722)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Yes

Invested

$372.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$711.97

Record

61%

346-218 (564)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$208.01

Value

$350.73

PnL

+$142.73

Record

42%

1898-2620 (4518)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$415.72

Value

$272.88

PnL

+$140.38

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$44.08

Value

$76.22

PnL

+$32.14

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$30.16

Value

$31.65

PnL

+$1.48

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$33.45

Value

$29.03

PnL

-$4.43

Record

42%

5988-8169 (14157)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.27

Value

$26.23

PnL

-$5.03

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

VerilyWinningly<$100

Invested

$14.53

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$6.89

Record

17%

221-1066 (1287)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.01

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.54

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

3736-2986 (6722)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 58%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.3%

58.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$65.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.