Will Xun win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 88¢ · $481 held · ends Nov 29

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$480.78

Combined PnL

$118.69

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 87.8¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$299.82

Total Shares333

Combined PnL-$0.44

Yes6 traders

Total Value$180.96

Total Shares1,350

Combined PnL+$119.13

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LooksMaxxingx	Noavg 86.5¢	$200.59	$208.71	+$3.94	51% 926-877 (1803)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$27.75	$74.37	+$37.46	55% 5497-4534 (10031)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$20.3	$71.96	+$51.66	41% 3647-5210 (8857)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$46.15	$45.01	-$2.06	34% 3945-7626 (11571)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	No	$37.06	$37.06	-$1.47	46% 6652-7812 (14464)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.17	$14.65	+$10.26	57% 25501-19040 (44541)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.93	$9.92	+$13.14	26% 599-1695 (2294)
dips.<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$9.74	$9.05	-$0.85	48% 17808-19532 (37340)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$3.07	$8.66	+$5.59	50% 363-356 (719)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.04	$1.41	+$1.02	22% 3475-12090 (15565)

LooksMaxxingx

Invested

$200.59

Value

$208.71

PnL

+$3.94

Record

51%

926-877 (1803)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.75

Value

$74.37

PnL

+$37.46

Record

55%

5497-4534 (10031)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.3

Value

$71.96

PnL

+$51.66

Record

41%

3647-5210 (8857)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$46.15

Value

$45.01

PnL

-$2.06

Record

34%

3945-7626 (11571)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$37.06

Value

$37.06

PnL

-$1.47

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$14.65

PnL

+$10.26

Record

57%

25501-19040 (44541)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$13.14

Record

26%

599-1695 (2294)

dips.<$100

Invested

$9.74

Value

$9.05

PnL

-$0.85

Record

48%

17808-19532 (37340)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.07

Value

$8.66

PnL

+$5.59

Record

50%

363-356 (719)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$1.02

Record

22%

3475-12090 (15565)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.3%

87.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.