Sopo: Polona Hercog vs Carole Monnet

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Polona Hercog (82%) · Polona Hercog at 60¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 18

Polona Hercog60¢Carole Monnet40¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Polona Hercog

Consensus Traders

Polona Hercog 82%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$35.83

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 59.5¢

+33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

9 of 11 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Polona Hercog60%

Carole Monnet41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Polona Hercog9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,772

Combined PnL+$25.21

Carole Monnet2 traders

Total Value$743.14

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL+$10.61

Polona Hercog — 82%Carole Monnet — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Carole Monnet) and the top 1000 (4 on Polona Hercog) disagree here.

ctrPolona Hercog 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarole Monnet 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Polona Hercog 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Polona Hercogavg 46.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$48.37	50% 3289-3244 (6533)
RN1	Polona Hercogavg 42¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$24.72	57% 4029-3044 (7073)
VeryLucky888CTR	Carole Monnetavg 56¢	$652.06	$680.47	+$28.41	51% 446-421 (867)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 43.4¢	$574.98	$597.85	+$22.87	23% 120-405 (525)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 43.4¢	$366.98	$375.85	+$8.87
└ Carole Monnet leg	Carole Monnetavg 52¢	$208	$222	+$14
TH thirdt1me	Polona Hercogavg 43.6¢	$567.82	$473.08	+$9.26	42% 110-151 (261)
VE Venusian	Polona Hercogavg 47¢	$438.2	$442.87	+$4.66	30% 379-865 (1244)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Carole Monnetavg 54.2¢	$446.29	$359.04	-$51.97	51% 1833-1786 (3619)
└ Carole Monnet leg	Carole Monnetavg 54.2¢	$321.3	$257.88	-$67.17
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 48¢	$85.96	$101.16	+$15.2
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Polona Hercogavg 44¢	$318.32	$321.94	+$3.62	53% 1799-1610 (3409)
TH thestingsnake	Polona Hercogavg 48.3¢	$194.1	$227.13	+$33.03	24% 119-370 (489)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Carole Monnetavg 52¢	$227	$190.13	+$11.13	48% 1322-1438 (2760)
└ Carole Monnet leg	Carole Monnetavg 52¢	$143	$141.63	-$1.38
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 42¢	$42	$48.5	+$12.5
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 52¢	$80.47	$62.67	-$17.8	30% 373-867 (1240)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Polona Hercogavg 46.7¢	$34.24	$32.71	-$1.52	56% 3842-3016 (6858)
PA Pan9X<$100	Polona Hercogavg 42¢	$13.44	$13.28	-$0.16	48% 662-709 (1371)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Polona Hercogavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.82	-$0.03	22% 134-488 (622)

6512395314597884

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,421.91

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$48.37

Record

50%

3289-3244 (6533)

RN1

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,038.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$24.72

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

VeryLucky888CTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$652.06

Value

$680.47

PnL

+$28.41

Record

51%

446-421 (867)

babybellsARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$574.98

Value

$597.85

PnL

+$22.87

Record

23%

120-405 (525)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$366.9843.4¢+$8.87

Carole Monnet$20852¢+$14

thirdt1me

Polona Hercog

Invested

$567.82

Value

$473.08

PnL

+$9.26

Record

42%

110-151 (261)

Venusian

Polona Hercog

Invested

$438.2

Value

$442.87

PnL

+$4.66

Record

30%

379-865 (1244)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$446.29

Value

$359.04

PnL

-$51.97

Record

51%

1833-1786 (3619)

Both legs:

Carole Monnet$321.354.2¢-$67.17

Polona Hercog$85.9648¢+$15.2

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Polona Hercog

Invested

$318.32

Value

$321.94

PnL

+$3.62

Record

53%

1799-1610 (3409)

thestingsnake

Polona Hercog

Invested

$194.1

Value

$227.13

PnL

+$33.03

Record

24%

119-370 (489)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$227

Value

$190.13

PnL

+$11.13

Record

48%

1322-1438 (2760)

Both legs:

Carole Monnet$14352¢-$1.38

Polona Hercog$4242¢+$12.5

LimousinCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$80.47

Value

$62.67

PnL

-$17.8

Record

30%

373-867 (1240)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$34.24

Value

$32.71

PnL

-$1.52

Record

56%

3842-3016 (6858)

Pan9X<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$13.44

Value

$13.28

PnL

-$0.16

Record

48%

662-709 (1371)

BillBenter2026<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

22%

134-488 (622)

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

9 of 11 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Carole Monnet) and the top 1000 (4 on Polona Hercog) disagree here.

ctrPolona Hercog 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarole Monnet 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Polona Hercog 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Polona Hercog wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.