Sopo: Tatjana Maria vs Alice Tubello

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Tatjana Maria (71%) · Tatjana Maria at 66¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 18

Tatjana Maria66¢Alice Tubello34¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tatjana Maria

Consensus Traders

Tatjana Maria 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.1K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 65.5¢

+40% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralTatjana Maria at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tatjana Maria

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tatjana Maria66%

Alice Tubello35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tatjana Maria10 traders

Total Value$28.3K

Total Shares52,380

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Alice Tubello4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,181

Combined PnL+$47.83

Tatjana Maria — 71%Alice Tubello — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tatjana Mariaavg 45.7¢	$9.5K	$12.4K	+$2.9K	53% 1799-1610 (3409)
RN1	Tatjana Mariaavg 47.3¢	$10.8K	$11.1K	+$266.44	57% 4029-3044 (7073)
65 6512395314597884	Tatjana Mariaavg 47.6¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$83.12	50% 3289-3244 (6533)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 38¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$49.64	30% 373-863 (1236)
FL Flaznorp	Tatjana Mariaavg 46.8¢	$787.2	$976.79	+$189.59	51% 1833-1786 (3619)
38 38791873984189	Tatjana Mariaavg 46.1¢	$701.32	$811.36	+$213.08	48% 1322-1438 (2760)
BA babybells	Tatjana Mariaavg 47.8¢	$519.95	$548.94	+$28.99	23% 120-405 (525)
TH thirdt1me	Tatjana Mariaavg 46.7¢	$390.89	$489.44	+$98.55	42% 110-151 (261)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 38¢	$258.6	$240.12	+$18.72	24% 119-370 (489)
LI Limousin	Tatjana Mariaavg 58¢	$191.45	$209.61	+$18.15	30% 373-867 (1240)
machinelearnedCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 53¢	$135.32	$114.1	-$21.22	39% 499-770 (1269)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 49.8¢	$88.94	$95.23	+$6.29	56% 3842-3016 (6858)
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 49.8¢	$53.15	$62.44	+$9.3
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 45.3¢	$35.79	$32.79	-$3
EU Eulhunter<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 46¢	$18.86	$19.07	+$0.21	49% 98-101 (199)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 55.3¢	$11.05	$12.5	+$1.45	22% 134-488 (622)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 48.5¢	$9.7	$10.4	+$0.7	48% 662-709 (1371)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$9,532.54

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

53%

1799-1610 (3409)

RN1

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$10,816.3

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$266.44

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

6512395314597884

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$1,863.13

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$83.12

Record

50%

3289-3244 (6533)

LightParadoxCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,264.31

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$49.64

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

Flaznorp

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$787.2

Value

$976.79

PnL

+$189.59

Record

51%

1833-1786 (3619)

38791873984189

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$701.32

Value

$811.36

PnL

+$213.08

Record

48%

1322-1438 (2760)

babybells

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$519.95

Value

$548.94

PnL

+$28.99

Record

23%

120-405 (525)

thirdt1me

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$390.89

Value

$489.44

PnL

+$98.55

Record

42%

110-151 (261)

thestingsnakeCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$258.6

Value

$240.12

PnL

+$18.72

Record

24%

119-370 (489)

Limousin

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$191.45

Value

$209.61

PnL

+$18.15

Record

30%

373-867 (1240)

machinelearnedCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$135.32

Value

$114.1

PnL

-$21.22

Record

39%

499-770 (1269)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$88.94

Value

$95.23

PnL

+$6.29

Record

56%

3842-3016 (6858)

Both legs:

Tatjana Maria$53.1549.8¢+$9.3

Alice Tubello$35.7945.3¢-$3

Eulhunter<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$18.86

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

98-101 (199)

BillBenter2026<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$11.05

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$1.45

Record

22%

134-488 (622)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$9.7

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

662-709 (1371)

Research grade

NeutralTatjana Maria at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tatjana Maria

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tatjana Maria wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.