Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Carole Monnet, while the market favors Leyre Romero Gormaz (65%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sopo: Carole Monnet vs Leyre Romero Gormaz

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Carole Monnet (42%) · Carole Monnet at 36¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Carole Monnet36¢Leyre Romero Gormaz64¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carole Monnet

Consensus Traders

Carole Monnet 42%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$68.67

Smart Money Entry

38.1¢ → 35.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarole Monnet at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carole Monnet

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Leyre Romero Gormaz 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carole Monnet36%

Leyre Romero Gormaz65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carole Monnet5 traders

Total Value$647.39

Total Shares1,515

Combined PnL+$63.63

Leyre Romero Gormaz7 traders

Total Value$549.56

Total Shares857

Combined PnL+$5.04

Carole Monnet — 42%Leyre Romero Gormaz — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Carole Monnetavg 36¢	$321.35	$378.9	+$57.55	25% 210-646 (856)
0xheavy888	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 64¢	$352	$346.5	-$5.5	56% 105-82 (187)
BA babybellsCTR	Carole Monnetavg 42.5¢	$163.68	$167.69	+$4.01	17% 73-363 (436)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 37.9¢	$68.17	$71.09	+$2.92	25% 210-628 (838)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 64¢	$56.5	$56.94	+$0.44	61% 893-569 (1462)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 60¢	$50.7	$51.12	+$0.42	36% 66-116 (182)
PA Pan9X<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 63.5¢	$45.09	$45.79	+$0.7	48% 414-448 (862)
VeryLucky888	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 64¢	$226.2	$30	+$9	48% 223-237 (460)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 44¢	$18.65	$16.36	-$2.3	56% 3791-2951 (6742)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 55¢	$14.06	$14.18	+$0.13	54% 1615-1366 (2981)
RN1CTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 39.7¢	$11.9	$13.35	+$1.45	58% 3753-2706 (6459)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 65¢	$5.18	$5.02	-$0.16	35% 177-324 (501)

VenusianCTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$321.35

Value

$378.9

PnL

+$57.55

Record

25%

210-646 (856)

0xheavy888

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$352

Value

$346.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

56%

105-82 (187)

babybellsCTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$163.68

Value

$167.69

PnL

+$4.01

Record

17%

73-363 (436)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$68.17

Value

$71.09

PnL

+$2.92

Record

25%

210-628 (838)

darkumbreon88<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$56.5

Value

$56.94

PnL

+$0.44

Record

61%

893-569 (1462)

thirdt1me<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$50.7

Value

$51.12

PnL

+$0.42

Record

36%

66-116 (182)

Pan9X<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$45.09

Value

$45.79

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

414-448 (862)

VeryLucky888

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$226.2

Value

$30

PnL

+$9

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$18.65

Value

$16.36

PnL

-$2.3

Record

56%

3791-2951 (6742)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$14.06

Value

$14.18

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

1615-1366 (2981)

RN1CTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$11.9

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$1.45

Record

58%

3753-2706 (6459)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.16

Record

35%

177-324 (501)

Research grade

NeutralCarole Monnet at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Carole Monnet

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Leyre Romero Gormaz 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carole Monnet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.