Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 96¢ · $58K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$58.0K

Combined PnL

$7.1K

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 96¢

+23% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$56.2K

Total Shares58,291

Combined PnL+$8.9K

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares47,773

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Folletin	Yesavg 52.2¢	$6.8K	$12.3K	+$5.6K	69% 423-188 (611)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 84.8¢	$11.7K	$11.8K	+$141.85	53% 3043-2719 (5762)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 90.3¢	$5.8K	$6.2K	+$465.61	50% 147-145 (292)
balthazar	Yesavg 90.8¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$195.1	61% 21355-13647 (35002)
mombil	Yesavg 53.3¢	$1.6K	$4.3K	+$2.0K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
Ahpo	Yesavg 91.7¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	+$48.9	87% 1622-251 (1873)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 95.4¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	+$20.27	32% 4498-9643 (14141)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 95.2¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$32.74	77% 1408-416 (1824)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 83.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$28.49	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 95.4¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$14.19	96% 631-24 (655)
10 101456CTR	Noavg 2.8¢	$630.32	$889.2	$-2.0K	53% 141-126 (267)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Noavg 2.8¢	$614.56	$866.97	+$251.94	47% 85-95 (180)
Zaratustra	Yesavg 94.9¢	$656.59	$666.28	+$7.96	62% 351-214 (565)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 66.5¢	$430.79	$627.95	+$197.17	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Yesavg 71¢	$406.9	$549.19	+$142.29	88% 2229-292 (2521)
XC xcaiox	Yes	$220.21	$220.21	+$82.43	77% 200-61 (261)
NadmiCTR	Noavg 4.4¢	$145.7	$130.38	-$12	47% 2036-2280 (4316)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 50.1¢	$6.28	$0.5	-$5.78	72% 1535-585 (2120)

Folletin

Yes

Invested

$6,777.71

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$11,651.78

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$141.85

Record

53%

3043-2719 (5762)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$5,762.09

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$465.61

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

balthazar

Yes

Invested

$5,372.92

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$195.1

Record

61%

21355-13647 (35002)

mombil

Yes

Invested

$1,560.46

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Ahpo

Yes

Invested

$4,207.45

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$48.9

Record

87%

1622-251 (1873)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$3,142.52

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$20.27

Record

32%

4498-9643 (14141)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$2,810.37

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$32.74

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$2,193.62

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$28.49

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$2,139.25

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$14.19

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

101456CTR

Invested

$630.32

Value

$889.2

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

53%

141-126 (267)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Invested

$614.56

Value

$866.97

PnL

+$251.94

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

Zaratustra

Yes

Invested

$656.59

Value

$666.28

PnL

+$7.96

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$430.79

Value

$627.95

PnL

+$197.17

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Yes

Invested

$406.9

Value

$549.19

PnL

+$142.29

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

xcaiox

Yes

Invested

$220.21

Value

$220.21

PnL

+$82.43

Record

77%

200-61 (261)

NadmiCTR

Invested

$145.7

Value

$130.38

PnL

-$12

Record

47%

2036-2280 (4316)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$6.28

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$5.78

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.