Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

8 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 99¢ · $154K held · ended Nov 8

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$153.6K

Combined PnL

-$498

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 98.6¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 21 top traders (38%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$153.4K

Total Shares157,186

Combined PnL-$481.08

No13 traders

Total Value$187.08

Total Shares10,361

Combined PnL-$16.92

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

905h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 91% · 11

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Yesavg 97.9¢	$96.1K	$95.8K	-$274.18	59% 1126-779 (1905)
Tigerofthehood	Yesavg 98¢	$46.4K	$46.1K	-$212.22	— 0-1 (1)
RA Randomfool	Yesavg 97.5¢	$9.7K	$9.7K	+$9.97	—
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 98¢	$980	$976	-$4	0% 0-41 (41)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 98.2¢	$339.36	$337.33	-$2.03	83% 24-5 (29)
Bromley86	Yesavg 98¢	$979.99	$320.89	+$1.88	— 1-2 (3)
JJo<$100	Yesavg 98.2¢	$87.4	$86.86	-$0.53	— 3-8 (11)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$53.77	$42.93	-$10.84	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$36.99	$36.59	-$0.4	80% 48-12 (60)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$29.77	$29.74	-$0.03	84% 47-9 (56)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Yesavg 97.6¢	$17.78	$17.81	+$0.03	45% 13-16 (29)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$17.64	$16.76	-$0.87	47% 368-407 (775)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$15.21	$14.01	-$1.2	49% 353-368 (721)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$12.74	$11.92	-$0.82	41% 700-997 (1697)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$10.72	$10.1	-$0.62	43% 386-510 (896)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 2.3¢	$9.98	$8.17	-$1.81	45% 391-471 (862)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$7.44	$6.88	-$0.55	44% 401-519 (920)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$4.04	$4.6	+$0.56	41% 3126-4493 (7619)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$4.18	$3.8	-$0.38	31% 2735-6214 (8949)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$1.17	$1.17	-$0.01	79% 394-105 (499)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$0.34	$0.4	+$0.07	45% 132-162 (294)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Yes

Invested

$96,069.12

Value

$95.8K

PnL

-$274.18

Record

59%

1126-779 (1905)

Tigerofthehood

Yes

Invested

$46,359.87

Value

$46.1K

PnL

-$212.22

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Randomfool

Yes

Invested

$9,722.01

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$9.97

Record

—

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$980

Value

$976

PnL

-$4

Record

0-41 (41)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$339.36

Value

$337.33

PnL

-$2.03

Record

83%

24-5 (29)

Bromley86

Yes

Invested

$979.99

Value

$320.89

PnL

+$1.88

Record

—

1-2 (3)

JJo<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.4

Value

$86.86

PnL

-$0.53

Record

—

3-8 (11)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$53.77

Value

$42.93

PnL

-$10.84

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$36.99

Value

$36.59

PnL

-$0.4

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$29.77

Value

$29.74

PnL

-$0.03

Record

84%

47-9 (56)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.78

Value

$17.81

PnL

+$0.03

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$17.64

Value

$16.76

PnL

-$0.87

Record

47%

368-407 (775)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$15.21

Value

$14.01

PnL

-$1.2

Record

49%

353-368 (721)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$12.74

Value

$11.92

PnL

-$0.82

Record

41%

700-997 (1697)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$10.72

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.62

Record

43%

386-510 (896)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$8.17

PnL

-$1.81

Record

45%

391-471 (862)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$7.44

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$0.55

Record

44%

401-519 (920)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.56

Record

41%

3126-4493 (7619)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.38

Record

31%

2735-6214 (8949)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.01

Record

79%

394-105 (499)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.07

Record

45%

132-162 (294)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 21 top traders (38%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

905h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (19 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 91% · 11

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.