UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Prelims)

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jose Delano (29%) · Jose Delano at 53¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 8

Jose Delano53¢Murtazali Magomedov47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jose Delano

Consensus Traders

Jose Delano 29%

Total Value

$22.3K

Combined PnL

-$28.92

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJose Delano at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jose Delano

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jose Delano53%

Murtazali Magomedov48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jose Delano4 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares25,410

Combined PnL+$2.74

Murtazali Magomedov10 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares18,880

Combined PnL-$31.66

Jose Delano — 29%Murtazali Magomedov — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Jose Delanoavg 51¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$64.43	54% 201-173 (374)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Jose Delanoavg 52¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$62.44	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
esportsbetter1CTR	Murtazali Magomedovavg 48.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$20.49	49% 182-193 (375)
FK FKMYCTR	Murtazali Magomedovavg 48.6¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$5.75	63% 41-24 (65)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Murtazali Magomedovavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.32	50% 549-553 (1102)
StreamLIVECTR	Murtazali Magomedovavg 50.2¢	$402	$392	-$4	55% 1288-1051 (2339)
VE VenusianCTR	Murtazali Magomedovavg 50.2¢	$337.08	$328.7	-$8.38	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Murtazali Magomedovavg 50.2¢	$328.41	$320.35	-$8.06	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Murtazali Magomedovavg 50.2¢	$85.55	$83.42	-$2.13	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Murtazali Magomedovavg 49¢	$81.12	$78.64	-$2.48	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Murtazali Magomedovavg 47¢	$61.02	$63.61	+$1.95	48% 405-446 (851)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Murtazali Magomedovavg 51.2¢	$64.69	$61.81	-$1.63	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jose Delanoavg 48.5¢	$9.7	$10.2	+$0.6	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Jose Delanoavg 48¢	$2.03	$2.16	+$0.15	53% 2699-2381 (5080)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Jose Delano

Invested

$6,571.77

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$64.43

Record

54%

201-173 (374)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Jose Delano

Invested

$6,499.93

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$62.44

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

esportsbetter1CTR

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$3,499.74

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$20.49

Record

49%

182-193 (375)

FKMYCTR

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$2,504.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$5.75

Record

63%

41-24 (65)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$1,854.31

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.32

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

StreamLIVECTR

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$402

Value

$392

PnL

-$4

Record

55%

1288-1051 (2339)

VenusianCTR

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$337.08

Value

$328.7

PnL

-$8.38

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

MadridTimeCTR

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$328.41

Value

$320.35

PnL

-$8.06

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$85.55

Value

$83.42

PnL

-$2.13

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

LimousinCTR<$100

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$81.12

Value

$78.64

PnL

-$2.48

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$61.02

Value

$63.61

PnL

+$1.95

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Murtazali Magomedov

Invested

$64.69

Value

$61.81

PnL

-$1.63

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jose Delano

Invested

$9.7

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Jose Delano

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Research grade

NeutralJose Delano at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jose Delano

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jose Delano wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.