Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$417.71

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 73.5¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,486

Combined PnL+$304.71

Yes4 traders

Total Value$566.06

Total Shares2,022

Combined PnL+$113.01

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 79.5¢	$1.1K	$975.76	+$192.94	54% 22028-19125 (41153)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 73.5¢	$1.2K	$946.42	+$31.56	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
Lucerys	Noavg 77.7¢	$597.28	$565.26	-$32.02	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
TR TrueDignityCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$150	$210	+$45	37% 45-78 (123)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 72.7¢	$171.64	$169.92	-$1.72	71% 6981-2790 (9771)
GO god83743894	Noavg 64.3¢	$178.76	$160.23	+$51.17	46% 10069-11760 (21829)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$128.7	$158	+$29.31	50% 996-1008 (2004)
LP lpgb	Noavg 76.2¢	$212.78	$150.01	-$6.51	24% 302-942 (1244)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$130	$140	+$0	69% 1027-455 (1482)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 65¢	$109.92	$121.75	+$9.3	52% 1670-1542 (3212)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$83.46	$72.09	+$38.7	72% 8571-3391 (11962)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$58.06	$58.06	+$38.7	73% 12604-4594 (17198)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 73¢	$37.22	$44.18	+$6.8	20% 2469-9859 (12328)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67.8¢	$28.11	$31.41	+$3.3	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 73¢	$32.96	$30.15	+$11.19	56% 18152-14046 (32198)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,135.56

Value

$975.76

PnL

+$192.94

Record

54%

22028-19125 (41153)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,167.18

Value

$946.42

PnL

+$31.56

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

Lucerys

Invested

$597.28

Value

$565.26

PnL

-$32.02

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

TrueDignityCTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$210

PnL

+$45

Record

37%

45-78 (123)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$171.64

Value

$169.92

PnL

-$1.72

Record

71%

6981-2790 (9771)

god83743894

Invested

$178.76

Value

$160.23

PnL

+$51.17

Record

46%

10069-11760 (21829)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$128.7

Value

$158

PnL

+$29.31

Record

50%

996-1008 (2004)

lpgb

Invested

$212.78

Value

$150.01

PnL

-$6.51

Record

24%

302-942 (1244)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$130

Value

$140

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

1027-455 (1482)

cocococococo

Invested

$109.92

Value

$121.75

PnL

+$9.3

Record

52%

1670-1542 (3212)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$83.46

Value

$72.09

PnL

+$38.7

Record

72%

8571-3391 (11962)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.06

Value

$58.06

PnL

+$38.7

Record

73%

12604-4594 (17198)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$37.22

Value

$44.18

PnL

+$6.8

Record

20%

2469-9859 (12328)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.11

Value

$31.41

PnL

+$3.3

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$32.96

Value

$30.15

PnL

+$11.19

Record

56%

18152-14046 (32198)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.3%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.