Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 93¢ · $34K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$33.9K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 92.5¢

+8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$33.6K

Total Shares36,106

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$301.25

Total Shares4,017

Combined PnL-$189.75

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MEPP	Noavg 87¢	$15.4K	$16.5K	+$971.07	64% 633-352 (985)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 88.1¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$157.8	63% 166-99 (265)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 82.6¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$311	73% 350-129 (479)
archaic	Noavg 83.2¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$143.84	85% 1906-339 (2245)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 88.4¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$9.55	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
Zaratustra	No	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$127.5	62% 351-214 (565)
siick	Noavg 77.7¢	$994.48	$1.1K	+$126.57	57% 768-580 (1348)
debased	Noavg 75.9¢	$859.04	$1.1K	+$187.24	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
IN insidero	Noavg 91¢	$910	$930	+$15	76% 291-93 (384)
StarMaster	Noavg 90.1¢	$928.99	$930	+$1.01	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$490.15	$299.98	-$190.17	65% 862-465 (1327)
Donny.T	Noavg 82¢	$180.82	$187.93	+$7.12	72% 484-187 (671)
TT tttt123	Noavg 78.4¢	$156.75	$185.99	+$28.24	72% 1535-585 (2120)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 86.7¢	$495.28	$131.43	+$9.3	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.85	$1.28	+$0.43	47% 2036-2278 (4314)

MEPP

Invested

$15,422.22

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$971.07

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$3,190.95

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$157.8

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$2,609.5

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$311

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

archaic

Invested

$2,774.26

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$143.84

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,951.6

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$9.55

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

Zaratustra

Invested

$1,395.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$127.5

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

siick

Invested

$994.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$126.57

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

debased

Invested

$859.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$187.24

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

insidero

Invested

$910

Value

$930

PnL

+$15

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

StarMaster

Invested

$928.99

Value

$930

PnL

+$1.01

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$490.15

Value

$299.98

PnL

-$190.17

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

Donny.T

Invested

$180.82

Value

$187.93

PnL

+$7.12

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

tttt123

Invested

$156.75

Value

$185.99

PnL

+$28.24

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$495.28

Value

$131.43

PnL

+$9.3

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.43

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.5%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.