Consensus PnL -$52K · win rate 89% (49–6, n=55) · hand-picked wallet · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-51.7K
Record
49W / 6L
Win Rate
89.0%
of 55 settled
Batting Avg
26.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#260
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
3,666
Markets
230
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 14 on the consensus side (93%)- Trump out as President before 2027?No $24K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $13K · now 77¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $10K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $7.8K · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $7.7K · now 81¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (50% of 40)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $5.0K · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.5K · now 71¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $2.5K · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
Specialties
188 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 84¢- Tech
+9 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 84% of 96 at an average 85¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 8% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 40% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 56% of 18)
- 70¢ and up: 81%(won 95% of 153)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.