Consensus PnL $3.7K · win rate 98% (361–9, n=370) · was PM monthly #628 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.7K
Record
361W / 9L
Win Rate
98.0%
of 370 settled
Batting Avg
28.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#103
Source
PM monthly #628
Trades
173
Markets
407
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $127K · now 84¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $27K · now 74¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (55% of 32)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $22K · now 71¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $18K · now 70¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $14K · now 81¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (69% of 39)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $9.2K · now 81¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (62% of 37)
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Yes $3.4K · now 84¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
Specialties
341 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 96¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 100% of 111 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +4%
- Mentions
+6 pts
side won 100% of 45 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 100% of 53 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 94% of 16 at an average 96¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 50% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 100% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 97%(won 99% of 332)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.