Israeli Knesset election annulled?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 96¢ · $30K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$29.9K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 96¢

+4% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$29.8K

Total Shares30,847

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$16

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$2.4

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Noavg 95.2¢	$8.0K	$8.1K	+$63.02	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
vinii	Noavg 87.2¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$385.2	74% 2792-1003 (3795)
yen4u	Noavg 95.4¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$19.16	86% 807-136 (943)
Ahpo	Noavg 94.6¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$33.81	87% 1621-251 (1872)
MisTKy	Noavg 85.1¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$258.15	71% 568-236 (804)
DonationsReceiver	Noavg 95.8¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$3.62	60% 245-160 (405)
classified	Noavg 86.9¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$175.98	58% 843-614 (1457)
AV aviato	Noavg 94.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$25.38	84% 2440-449 (2889)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 95¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$17.4	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
IN insidero	Noavg 95¢	$759.99	$773.59	+$7.6	76% 291-93 (384)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 84¢	$434.44	$458.95	+$24.51	59% 986-684 (1670)
archaic	Noavg 95.9¢	$363.42	$366.45	+$0	85% 1906-339 (2245)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 93.8¢	$234.5	$241.75	+$5.13	65% 526-281 (807)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$19.34	$19.34	+$0	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$1.02	$16	+$2.4	56% 15371-11922 (27293)

Car

Invested

$7,959.77

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$63.02

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

vinii

Invested

$3,872.35

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$385.2

Record

74%

2792-1003 (3795)

yen4u

Invested

$4,090.22

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$19.16

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

Ahpo

Invested

$2,419.42

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$33.81

Record

87%

1621-251 (1872)

MisTKy

Invested

$2,051.82

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$258.15

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

DonationsReceiver

Invested

$2,236.4

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$3.62

Record

60%

245-160 (405)

classified

Invested

$1,684.9

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$175.98

Record

58%

843-614 (1457)

aviato

Invested

$1,431

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$25.38

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,140.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$17.4

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

insidero

Invested

$759.99

Value

$773.59

PnL

+$7.6

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$434.44

Value

$458.95

PnL

+$24.51

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

archaic

Invested

$363.42

Value

$366.45

PnL

+$0

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

melonmanm

Invested

$234.5

Value

$241.75

PnL

+$5.13

Record

65%

526-281 (807)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$19.34

Value

$19.34

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$16

PnL

+$2.4

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.