Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Entry

0.4¢ → 0.4¢

-18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares296,296

Combined PnL$-3.2K

No1 trader

Total Value$3.56

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes — 91%No — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

202 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$490.06	$571.74	+$81.84	46% 49-57 (106)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$200	$175	-$24.98	40% 704-1061 (1765)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$191.14	$135.73	-$55.42	41% 166-240 (406)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$7.8K	$79.6	$-3.1K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$37.05	-$42.88	41% 648-925 (1573)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$15.57	-$19.18	47% 83-94 (177)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$26.65	$14.15	-$13.05	68% 2074-957 (3031)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$20.08	$7.03	-$13.04	71% 968-396 (1364)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 99¢	$3.53	$3.56	+$0.02	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.92	$0.92	-$1.14	7% 14-187 (201)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$0.25	-$52	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$490.06

Value

$571.74

PnL

+$81.84

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$175

PnL

-$24.98

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$191.14

Value

$135.73

PnL

-$55.42

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,829.74

Value

$79.6

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$37.05

PnL

-$42.88

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$19.18

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.65

Value

$14.15

PnL

-$13.05

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.08

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$13.04

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$1.14

Record

14-187 (201)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,577.93

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$52

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

202 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.