Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eagles, while the market favors Giants (55%). 16 of 29 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Giants (-3.5)

16 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (55%) · Eagles at 46¢ · $262K held · ended Nov 8

Giants55¢Eagles45¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$262.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 45.5¢

-18% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

16 of 29 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Giants 55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants55%

Eagles46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants13 traders

Total Value$127.0K

Total Shares259,368

Combined PnL+$11.8K

Eagles16 traders

Total Value$121.9K

Total Shares244,904

Combined PnL$-14.6K

Giants — 45%Eagles — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 70% · 10

Diverging

ctrGiants 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Giantsavg 43.8¢	$50.3K	$62.6K	+$12.2K	41% 643-935 (1578)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Eaglesavg 56¢	$56.0K	$44.0K	$-12.0K	50% 583-574 (1157)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Eaglesavg 55¢	$68.1K	$38.5K	+$1.0K	49% 807-840 (1647)
TA takeormake	Giantsavg 45¢	$24.4K	$24.2K	-$277.78	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Giantsavg 44¢	$22.0K	$21.8K	-$250	53% 6638-5848 (12486)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Eaglesavg 55¢	$11.0K	$11.3K	+$305.61	55% 3404-2735 (6139)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Giantsavg 45¢	$36.0K	$9.2K	-$953.57	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Eaglesavg 55.6¢	$9.6K	$8.4K	-$275.73	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 55.6¢	$5.4K	$4.5K	-$989.96
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 44.4¢	$3.2K	$3.9K	+$714.24
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Eaglesavg 56¢	$7.5K	$6.1K	$-1.4K	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Eaglesavg 55¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$152.02	49% 507-531 (1038)
betdge	Giantsavg 48¢	$4.7K	$5.3K	+$631.11	49% 1421-1470 (2891)
RN1CTR	Eaglesavg 52.3¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	-$424.76	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Eaglesavg 56.7¢	$4.1K	$3.3K	-$802.52	48% 4748-5241 (9989)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Giantsavg 44.4¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	+$109.47	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 44.4¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$356.91
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 52¢	$1.1K	$934.5	-$247.44
AN Anon455CTR	Eaglesavg 53.7¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$464.88	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
VeryLucky888CTR	Eaglesavg 56¢	$3.1K	$2.5K	-$579.18	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Giantsavg 44.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$27.24	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 44.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$34.39
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 56¢	$800.34	$807.48	+$7.15
UB ubetteruuuu	Giantsavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$252	48% 214-229 (443)
AL AlphaBetaGamma2357CTR	Eaglesavg 56¢	$840	$847.5	+$7.5	50% 429-429 (858)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Eaglesavg 52.1¢	$982.97	$842.84	-$140.14	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
AU Aurelius7CTR	Eaglesavg 54¢	$800	$837.04	+$37.04	47% 293-333 (626)
DA darkumbreon88	Giantsavg 43.1¢	$759.46	$765.79	+$6.33	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Eaglesavg 57¢	$950	$758.33	-$191.67	45% 211-253 (464)
BI biying88888	Giantsavg 47¢	$653.3	$757.55	+$104.25	48% 219-239 (458)
0xheavy888CTR	Eaglesavg 56¢	$692.72	$562.84	-$129.89	56% 8592-6809 (15401)

BreakTheBank

Giants

Invested

$50,333.89

Value

$62.6K

PnL

+$12.2K

Record

41%

643-935 (1578)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Eagles

Invested

$55,999.88

Value

$44.0K

PnL

$-12.0K

Record

50%

583-574 (1157)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Eagles

Invested

$68,083.81

Value

$38.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

807-840 (1647)

takeormake

Giants

Invested

$24,444.64

Value

$24.2K

PnL

-$277.78

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Giants

Invested

$22,000

Value

$21.8K

PnL

-$250

Record

53%

6638-5848 (12486)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Eagles

Invested

$11,003.07

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$305.61

Record

55%

3404-2735 (6139)

ferrariChampions2026

Giants

Invested

$36,011.17

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$953.57

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Eagles

Invested

$9,624.07

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$275.73

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Eagles$5,443.0555.6¢-$989.96

Giants$3,193.7744.4¢+$714.24

HomeRunHazardCTR

Eagles

Invested

$7,455.13

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Eagles

Invested

$5,574

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$152.02

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

betdge

Giants

Invested

$4,658.79

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$631.11

Record

49%

1421-1470 (2891)

RN1CTR

Eagles

Invested

$4,337.26

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$424.76

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Bagwell306CTR

Eagles

Invested

$4,063.46

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$802.52

Record

48%

4748-5241 (9989)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$3,305.67

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$109.47

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Both legs:

Giants$1,434.1944.4¢+$356.91

Eagles$1,09252¢-$247.44

Anon455CTR

Eagles

Invested

$3,091.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$464.88

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eagles

Invested

$3,088.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$579.18

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

sentrioARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$1,931.18

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$27.24

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Giants$1,130.8544.9¢-$34.39

Eagles$800.3456¢+$7.15

ubetteruuuu

Giants

Invested

$1,056

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$252

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

AlphaBetaGamma2357CTR

Eagles

Invested

$840

Value

$847.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

50%

429-429 (858)

6512395314597884CTR

Eagles

Invested

$982.97

Value

$842.84

PnL

-$140.14

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

Aurelius7CTR

Eagles

Invested

$800

Value

$837.04

PnL

+$37.04

Record

47%

293-333 (626)

darkumbreon88

Giants

Invested

$759.46

Value

$765.79

PnL

+$6.33

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

glennyorkshireCTR

Eagles

Invested

$950

Value

$758.33

PnL

-$191.67

Record

45%

211-253 (464)

biying88888

Giants

Invested

$653.3

Value

$757.55

PnL

+$104.25

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

0xheavy888CTR

Eagles

Invested

$692.72

Value

$562.84

PnL

-$129.89

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

16 of 29 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Giants 55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGiants 70% · 10

Diverging

ctrGiants 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedGiants 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.