Consensus PnL -$551K · win rate 82% (311–69, n=380) · PM monthly #292 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-550.9K
Record
311W / 69L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 380 settled
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#291
Source
PM monthly #292
Record (90 d)
21/22 · 95%
Trades
0
Markets
878
Volume
$13.2M
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Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $518K · now 100¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (68% of 186)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $134K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (82% of 169)
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?No $52K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $22K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $20K · now 94¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (63% of 115)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $136 · now 16¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
723 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 80¢- NBA
+11 pts
side won 93% of 255 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +9%
- NFL
+14 pts
side won 89% of 82 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +12%
- NHL
+11 pts
side won 89% of 95 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +23%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 60% of 15 at an average 68¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 3% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 69% of 42)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 79% of 103)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 98% of 549)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.