Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 6 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 42¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 23

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Mon, Nov 23, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$33.9K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 42¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares53,275

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No9 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares19,053

Combined PnL-$29.17

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

364h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 40.8¢	$25.1K	$15.9K	+$903.87	58% 844-614 (1458)
paddaa	Noavg 59.8¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$161.13	56% 836-645 (1481)
BigMackyGCTR	Yesavg 40.2¢	$4.8K	$5.1K	+$208.66	20% 108-423 (531)
GollumGekko	Noavg 56.6¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$109.01	68% 2074-958 (3032)
BR browne	Noavg 59.9¢	$673.7	$674.89	-$21.31	71% 173-70 (243)
KR KrackenSrusterCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$645	$645	-$15	66% 487-255 (742)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 61.1¢	$631.07	$599.41	-$31.66	38% 20-32 (52)
eCashCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$452	$432.15	-$24.87	68% 331-155 (486)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 59.9¢	$299.96	$290.55	-$9.45	69% 156-69 (225)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR	Yesavg 44.7¢	$299.22	$288.08	-$17.83	69% 404-180 (584)
mombil	Noavg 48¢	$222.6	$267.12	+$44.52	55% 1191-966 (2157)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 52.3¢	$171.97	$172.52	+$0.55	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$162	$172	+$10	38% 567-944 (1511)
siick<$100	Noavg 54¢	$7.89	$8.77	+$0.58	57% 768-580 (1348)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438	Noavg 58.7¢	$385.33	$8.3	+$39.72	50% 357-357 (714)

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$25,109.86

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$903.87

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

paddaa

Invested

$6,796.46

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$161.13

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

BigMackyGCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,768.57

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$208.66

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

GollumGekko

Invested

$2,588.93

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$109.01

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

browne

Invested

$673.7

Value

$674.89

PnL

-$21.31

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

KrackenSrusterCTR

Yes

Invested

$645

Value

$645

PnL

-$15

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$631.07

Value

$599.41

PnL

-$31.66

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

eCashCTR

Yes

Invested

$452

Value

$432.15

PnL

-$24.87

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$299.96

Value

$290.55

PnL

-$9.45

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

SeniorLaghettoCTR

Yes

Invested

$299.22

Value

$288.08

PnL

-$17.83

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

mombil

Invested

$222.6

Value

$267.12

PnL

+$44.52

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$171.97

Value

$172.52

PnL

+$0.55

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$162

Value

$172

PnL

+$10

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

siick<$100

Invested

$7.89

Value

$8.77

PnL

+$0.58

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438

Invested

$385.33

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$39.72

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

364h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.0%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$132.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

232.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.