Consensus PnL $286K · win rate 52% (394–361, n=755) · PM monthly #701 · holds 61 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$285.8K
Record
394W / 361L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 755 settled
Batting Avg
73.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1088
Source
PM monthly #701
Record (90 d)
24/37 · 65%
Trades
0
Markets
913
Volume
$8.4M
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Top consensus positions
61 in listed consensus markets · 49 of 61 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $156K · now 49¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 50)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $107K · now 32¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (76% of 76)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $61K · now 21¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (81% of 58)
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $45K · now 15¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $13K · now 4¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $12K · now 4¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (83% of 23)
- Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $11K · now 68¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?Yes $9.7K · now 65¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
Specialties
602 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 54¢- Geopolitics
+14 pts
side won 75% of 118 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +9%
- Culture
+25 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +12%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 34% of 172 · avg entry 31¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 53% of 17 at an average 59¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 13% of 198)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 54% of 70)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 77% of 87)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 95% of 247)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.