Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 21 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

21 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (95%) · Yes at 3.9¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 95%

Total Value

$27.1K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

2.5¢ → 3.9¢

+52% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

21 of 22 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes21 traders

Total Value$26.9K

Total Shares699,343

Combined PnL+$5.9K

No1 trader

Total Value$189.39

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$4.23

Yes — 95%No — 5%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

203 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 89% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 93% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$4.5K	$7.7K	+$3.2K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$4.2K	$6.3K	+$2.2K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
siickCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.8K	$5.2K	+$2.4K	57% 767-580 (1347)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$781.31	25% 185-564 (749)
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$27.59	42% 71-100 (171)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$20.7K	$1.7K	$-3.4K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
mombilCTR	Yes	$356.59	$356.59	+$152.83	55% 1191-966 (2157)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$269.82	$248.48	-$10.14	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$232.9	+$187.22	41% 648-925 (1573)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$149.98	$213.87	+$63.88	37% 566-944 (1510)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$20.66	$208.48	+$23.23	36% 16059-28074 (44133)
RD rdba	Noavg 94¢	$185.15	$189.39	+$4.23	60% 131-88 (219)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$163.58	$163.58	+$130.39	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.03	$148.23	+$118.15	47% 83-94 (177)
FA FancyiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$56.41	$61.99	+$5.59	68% 56-26 (82)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$38.08	$55.61	+$17.53	71% 968-396 (1364)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$10.05	$30.84	+$8.29	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$12.06	$30.09	+$18.03	68% 2074-957 (3031)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$19.31	$29.91	+$10.6	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$18.6	$18.6	+$14.82	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.51	$7.43	+$5.93	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$2.7	-$47.78	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,521.19

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,246.31

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,849.54

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,348.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$781.31

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,939.53

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$27.59

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$20,711.07

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$356.59

Value

$356.59

PnL

+$152.83

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$269.82

Value

$248.48

PnL

-$10.14

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$232.9

PnL

+$187.22

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$149.98

Value

$213.87

PnL

+$63.88

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$20.66

Value

$208.48

PnL

+$23.23

Record

36%

16059-28074 (44133)

rdba

Invested

$185.15

Value

$189.39

PnL

+$4.23

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.58

Value

$163.58

PnL

+$130.39

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$30.03

Value

$148.23

PnL

+$118.15

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

FancyiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.41

Value

$61.99

PnL

+$5.59

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.08

Value

$55.61

PnL

+$17.53

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.05

Value

$30.84

PnL

+$8.29

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.06

Value

$30.09

PnL

+$18.03

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.31

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$10.6

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.6

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$14.82

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.51

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$5.93

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,579.19

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$47.78

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

21 of 22 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

203 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 89% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 93% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.0%

3.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1886.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

1986.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.