Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.0¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

-$920.9

Smart Money Entry

2.3¢ → 3¢

+35% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares444,603

Combined PnL-$920.9

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

59 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$6.7K	$5.9K	$-5.3K	56% 973-769 (1742)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$2.4K	$3.7K	+$1.3K	82% 945-201 (1146)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$190.84	$2.1K	+$1.9K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$83.6	$1.0K	+$898.81	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$39.17	$202.49	+$163.01	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$36.7	$202.19	+$165.48	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$14	$163.55	-$2.72	36% 16059-28074 (44133)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$94.34	$74.38	-$19.95	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$7.29	$7.29	+$5.52	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.24	$7.25	+$6.02	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.5K	$3.33	-$45.11	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
HO HourglassCTR	Yes	$1.2K	$2.26	+$2.29	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.61	$0.61	+$0.61	86% 3499-571 (4070)
AO aosdijfCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$0.34	$0.3	-$0.05	9% 48-464 (512)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,686.25

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,384.6

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$190.84

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$83.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$898.81

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$39.17

Value

$202.49

PnL

+$163.01

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$36.7

Value

$202.19

PnL

+$165.48

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$14

Value

$163.55

PnL

-$2.72

Record

36%

16059-28074 (44133)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.34

Value

$74.38

PnL

-$19.95

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.29

PnL

+$5.52

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$6.02

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,537.9

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$45.11

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

HourglassCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,223.69

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$2.29

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.61

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

aosdijfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48-464 (512)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

59 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2277.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

2377.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.