Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$50.45

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 88.8¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,560

Combined PnL-$106.28

Yes6 traders

Total Value$386.64

Total Shares4,048

Combined PnL+$156.72

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

731h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Noavg 89¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$65.33	49% 6272-6430 (12702)
UbuntuTrading	Noavg 91.5¢	$290.7	$287.4	-$3.3	55% 3161-2559 (5720)
Haradwaith	Noavg 90¢	$1.7K	$250.18	+$1.11	41% 6389-9361 (15750)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 95.3¢	$247.67	$249.08	+$1.41	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.3K	$223.67	+$100.03	41% 2069-2967 (5036)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 91.6¢	$585.14	$157.48	-$173.94	35% 18775-34811 (53586)
BU Burkilota1	Noavg 88.3¢	$132.46	$143.65	+$3.1	63% 764-453 (1217)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$70.72	$71	+$0.28	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$26.72	$61.57	+$34.85	73% 12971-4909 (17880)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$64.84	$55.08	-$4.83	45% 2910-3559 (6469)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$42.25	$42.37	+$0.12	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$42.88	$35.11	+$10.91	53% 8421-7496 (15917)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$32.6	$32.18	-$0.42	18% 1302-6126 (7428)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$4.89	$9.46	+$15.39	42% 1534-2144 (3678)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$41.68	$2.17	+$0.03	76% 12513-3844 (16357)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$3.38	$1.75	+$0.38	58% 20250-14870 (35120)

purplegatto

Invested

$1,048.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$65.33

Record

49%

6272-6430 (12702)

UbuntuTrading

Invested

$290.7

Value

$287.4

PnL

-$3.3

Record

55%

3161-2559 (5720)

Haradwaith

Invested

$1,744.1

Value

$250.18

PnL

+$1.11

Record

41%

6389-9361 (15750)

smallreceipt

Invested

$247.67

Value

$249.08

PnL

+$1.41

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,329.94

Value

$223.67

PnL

+$100.03

Record

41%

2069-2967 (5036)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$585.14

Value

$157.48

PnL

-$173.94

Record

35%

18775-34811 (53586)

Burkilota1

Invested

$132.46

Value

$143.65

PnL

+$3.1

Record

63%

764-453 (1217)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$70.72

Value

$71

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.72

Value

$61.57

PnL

+$34.85

Record

73%

12971-4909 (17880)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.84

Value

$55.08

PnL

-$4.83

Record

45%

2910-3559 (6469)

korda77<$100

Invested

$42.25

Value

$42.37

PnL

+$0.12

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.88

Value

$35.11

PnL

+$10.91

Record

53%

8421-7496 (15917)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$32.6

Value

$32.18

PnL

-$0.42

Record

18%

1302-6126 (7428)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.89

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$15.39

Record

42%

1534-2144 (3678)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$41.68

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

76%

12513-3844 (16357)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

731h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.