Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 16

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$6.37

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 82.5¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,466

Combined PnL+$216.43

No7 traders

Total Value$204.19

Total Shares1,115

Combined PnL-$222.8

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

709h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO Gooooooollllllllll	Yesavg 71.6¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$185.26	50% 1260-1257 (2517)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 34¢	$390.83	$224.23	-$6.81	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.4¢	$116.51	$157.16	+$24.67
└ No leg	Noavg 34¢	$123.15	$67.07	-$31.48
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 47.6¢	$51.01	$81.51	+$30.5	50% 2449-2405 (4854)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$97.02	$62.22	-$34.8	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 43.6¢	$173.41	$35.85	-$60.59	63% 713-413 (1126)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 35.9¢	$68.94	$35.52	-$33.42	43% 3155-4197 (7352)
KO korda77CTR	Noavg 46.5¢	$128.37	$35.45	-$52.63	44% 6509-8177 (14686)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$44.3	$16.65	-$27.65	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$19.8	$11.1	-$8.7	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 74.3¢	$13.83	$11.09	+$0.66	77% 12390-3803 (16193)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$12.4	$7.4	-$5	49% 8853-9361 (18214)

Gooooooollllllllll

Yes

Invested

$1,684.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$185.26

Record

50%

1260-1257 (2517)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$390.83

Value

$224.23

PnL

-$6.81

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Both legs:

Yes$116.5160.4¢+$24.67

No$123.1534¢-$31.48

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.01

Value

$81.51

PnL

+$30.5

Record

50%

2449-2405 (4854)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$97.02

Value

$62.22

PnL

-$34.8

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$173.41

Value

$35.85

PnL

-$60.59

Record

63%

713-413 (1126)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$68.94

Value

$35.52

PnL

-$33.42

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

korda77CTR

Invested

$128.37

Value

$35.45

PnL

-$52.63

Record

44%

6509-8177 (14686)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$44.3

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$27.65

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$8.7

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.83

Value

$11.09

PnL

+$0.66

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

709h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.