Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$18.44

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 81.8¢

-2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,482

Combined PnL-$0.74

Yes4 traders

Total Value$270

Total Shares1,492

Combined PnL+$19.18

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

779h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.5¢	$977.9	$758.59	+$9.45	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 82.6¢	$644.16	$638.82	-$5.34	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 78.9¢	$232.24	$241.09	+$8.85	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 83.8¢	$189.43	$188.7	-$0.73	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$14	$182.62	+$5.01	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
BU Burkilota1	Noavg 81.7¢	$122.49	$122.47	-$0.03	63% 712-413 (1125)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 87¢	$104.46	$98.28	-$6.18	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$48.82	$79.14	+$27.7	41% 2015-2858 (4873)
probabilityARB<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$91.45	$74.2	+$24.75	41% 1485-2116 (3601)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.1¢	$40.91	$40.83	-$13.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.1¢	$13.1	$33.37	+$38.29
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$51.43	$47.77	-$0.41	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$33.84	$29.68	-$4.16	44% 6442-8142 (14584)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 82¢	$23.23	$23.19	-$0.04	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$13.1	$7.12	-$1.28	15% 459-2699 (3158)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$7.72	$6.85	-$0.88	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.4¢	$4.75	$5.97	+$1.27	49% 6195-6328 (12523)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$59.61	$2.27	-$14.8	49% 1867-1968 (3835)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$977.9

Value

$758.59

PnL

+$9.45

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

smallreceipt

Invested

$644.16

Value

$638.82

PnL

-$5.34

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$232.24

Value

$241.09

PnL

+$8.85

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$189.43

Value

$188.7

PnL

-$0.73

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$14

Value

$182.62

PnL

+$5.01

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

Burkilota1

Invested

$122.49

Value

$122.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

godblessme2026

Invested

$104.46

Value

$98.28

PnL

-$6.18

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.82

Value

$79.14

PnL

+$27.7

Record

41%

2015-2858 (4873)

probabilityARB<$100

Invested

$91.45

Value

$74.2

PnL

+$24.75

Record

41%

1485-2116 (3601)

Both legs:

No$40.9182.1¢-$13.54

Yes$13.17.1¢+$38.29

GC-P<$100

Invested

$51.43

Value

$47.77

PnL

-$0.41

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

korda77<$100

Invested

$33.84

Value

$29.68

PnL

-$4.16

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$23.23

Value

$23.19

PnL

-$0.04

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$13.1

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$1.28

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

merod<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0.88

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$1.27

Record

49%

6195-6328 (12523)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.61

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$14.8

Record

49%

1867-1968 (3835)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

779h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.5%

81.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.