Consensus PnL $487K · win rate 57% (1578–1188, n=2766) · was PM monthly #885 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$486.9K
Record
1578W / 1188L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 2766 settled
Batting Avg
61.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1323
Source
PM monthly #885
Trades
4,474
Markets
6,202
Volume
$10.2M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 8 on the consensus side (13%)- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $6.3K · now 56¢ · in at 85¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $2.6K · now 28¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $2.5K · now 71¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $1.8K · now 44¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $440 · now 28¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $380 · now 25¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $32 · now 23¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes $2 · now 2¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2,341 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 59¢- NHL
+44 pts
side won 100% of 159 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +23%
- Esports
+42 pts
side won 99% of 683 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +8%
- Soccer
+41 pts
side won 97% of 255 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 92% of 192)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 98% of 554)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 100% of 832)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 99% of 763)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.