Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $5K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

2.5¢ → 4.5¢

+79% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares116,206

Combined PnL+$2.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$28.25

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.46

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$721.68	$1.3K	+$565.86	47% 217-240 (457)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$555.7	$939.17	+$383.47	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$599.79	$910	+$310.21	53% 915-808 (1723)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$390.66	$812.93	+$422.51	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$280.56	$757.32	+$452.51	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$103.73	$259.56	+$82.46	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$93.59	$133.45	+$39.86	66% 1107-565 (1672)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$53.55	$91	+$91	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$1.59	$72.93	+$24.12	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yes	$24.36	$24.36	+$8.13	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$23.78	$23.48	-$0.29	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$4.94	$4.77	-$0.16	73% 41-15 (56)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$721.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$565.86

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$555.7

Value

$939.17

PnL

+$383.47

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Yes

Invested

$599.79

Value

$910

PnL

+$310.21

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$390.66

Value

$812.93

PnL

+$422.51

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$280.56

Value

$757.32

PnL

+$452.51

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.73

Value

$259.56

PnL

+$82.46

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$93.59

Value

$133.45

PnL

+$39.86

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.55

Value

$91

PnL

+$91

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$72.93

PnL

+$24.12

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.36

Value

$24.36

PnL

+$8.13

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$23.78

Value

$23.48

PnL

-$0.29

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$0.16

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1620.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

1720.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.