US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 62¢ · $14K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$225.83

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 61.5¢

-3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares13,738

Combined PnL+$127.25

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares12,794

Combined PnL-$353.08

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

683h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 60.9¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$246.13	66% 487-255 (742)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 33.2¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$54.58	56% 836-645 (1481)
Valen9CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$300	60% 407-274 (681)
MEPP	Noavg 67¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$114.17	64% 633-352 (985)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 66.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$24.43	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
LI lissartter	Noavg 66.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$69.8	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
classified	Noavg 58.8¢	$766.75	$886.03	+$119.28	58% 844-614 (1458)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$2.8K	$488.76	-$45.45	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.7¢	$264.58	$247.52	-$17.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.2¢	$220.87	$241.24	-$27.96
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 67¢	$445.15	$427.63	-$17.53	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 34.6¢	$286.31	$287.8	+$1.49	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
Optimus-	Noavg 65¢	$250.15	$234.76	+$0	61% 1200-768 (1968)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$88.27	$85.8	-$2.47	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
GonTanaka<$100	Noavg 71¢	$90.17	$77.47	-$12.07	57% 173-128 (301)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$62	$61.5	-$0.5	38% 20-32 (52)
88 881112<$100	Noavg 61¢	$42.7	$42.7	+$2.8	38% 567-944 (1511)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$2,699.77

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$246.13

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,650.46

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$54.58

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

Valen9CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$300

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

MEPP

Invested

$1,390.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$114.17

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,266.54

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$24.43

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

lissartter

Invested

$1,190.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$69.8

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

classified

Invested

$766.75

Value

$886.03

PnL

+$119.28

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Invested

$2,800.6

Value

$488.76

PnL

-$45.45

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Both legs:

No$264.5865.7¢-$17.49

Yes$220.8735.2¢-$27.96

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$445.15

Value

$427.63

PnL

-$17.53

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$286.31

Value

$287.8

PnL

+$1.49

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Optimus-

Invested

$250.15

Value

$234.76

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$88.27

Value

$85.8

PnL

-$2.47

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

GonTanaka<$100

Invested

$90.17

Value

$77.47

PnL

-$12.07

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Invested

$62

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

881112<$100

Invested

$42.7

Value

$42.7

PnL

+$2.8

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

683h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.5%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.