Science: what top Polymarket traders hold
Space, health and science outcomes. These are the Science markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 12
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 1 of 2
- Prices as of
- Nov 1, 14:40 UTC
Live Science consensus markets (12)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Traders hold No 92%24 of 26 tradersMarket price 98¢$329K held
- New pandemic in 2026?Traders hold No 92%11 of 12 tradersMarket price 97¢$53K held
- Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Traders hold No 88%7 of 8 tradersMarket price 93¢$4K held
- Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Traders hold Yes 63%5 of 8 tradersMarket price 68¢$113 held
- Plague pandemic in 2026?Traders hold No 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 98¢$107K held
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Traders hold No 57%4 of 7 tradersMarket price 2.3¢$4K heldagainst the market price
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Traders hold No 67%4 of 6 tradersMarket price 93¢$6K held
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 97¢$10K held
- Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 40¢$4K heldagainst the market price
- Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 100¢$198 held
- Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Traders hold No 20%1 of 5 tradersMarket price 100¢$142 held
- Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Traders hold Yes 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 33¢$42 heldagainst the market price
Top traders in Science
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Science consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.lissartter+22 ptsside won 89% of 27 · avg entry 67¢ · ROI −1%
- 2.wokerjoesleeper+15 ptsside won 100% of 30 · avg entry 85¢ · ROI +10%
- 3.cry.eth2+17 ptsside won 28% of 29 · avg entry 11¢ · ROI +14%
- 4.RememberAmalek+13 ptsside won 92% of 26 · avg entry 79¢ · ROI +5%
- 5.NoMoreMister+15 ptsside won 95% of 19 · avg entry 80¢ · ROI +7%
- 6.nonkenny90+6 ptsside won 97% of 33 · avg entry 91¢ · ROI +13%
- 7.Slowroasted+9 ptsside won 100% of 19 · avg entry 91¢ · ROI +1%
- 8.Euan+23 ptsside won 80% of 10 · avg entry 57¢ · ROI +9%
- 9.Optimus-+10 ptsside won 52% of 27 · avg entry 42¢ · ROI +10%
- 10.rated+6 ptsside won 93% of 28 · avg entry 87¢ · ROI −29%
Recently settled Science markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by October 31?Result: NoTraders held No 100%consensus was right
- Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Result: NoTraders held Yes 67%consensus was wrong
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.