Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 98¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 18%

Total Value

$40.4K

Combined PnL

$178.07

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 98.5¢

+96% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$40.1K

Total Shares40,134

Combined PnL-$0.34

Yes9 traders

Total Value$294.75

Total Shares19,870

Combined PnL+$178.41

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4887h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

40 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e	Noavg 50¢	$40.0K	$40.0K	+$0	78% 286-80 (366)
Gr33d	Noavg 98.5¢	$132.69	$132.35	-$0.34	80% 2709-698 (3407)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$50.8	$100.8	+$49.99	36% 2086-3724 (5810)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$45.02	$89.47	+$44.38	47% 86-98 (184)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$43.3	+$51.63	26% 351-985 (1336)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.91	$25.57	+$18.5	33% 6265-12990 (19255)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$15.66	$22.07	+$6.41	76% 11365-3529 (14894)
Rex416CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.47	$8.88	+$4.4	57% 2539-1923 (4462)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.56	$3.1	+$1.54	7% 14-187 (201)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yes	$1.55	$1.55	+$1.55	72% 8310-3186 (11496)
HI hideoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0	$0.02	+$0.01	76% 253-81 (334)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e

Invested

$40,000

Value

$40.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

78%

286-80 (366)

Gr33d

Invested

$132.69

Value

$132.35

PnL

-$0.34

Record

80%

2709-698 (3407)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$50.8

Value

$100.8

PnL

+$49.99

Record

36%

2086-3724 (5810)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.02

Value

$89.47

PnL

+$44.38

Record

47%

86-98 (184)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$43.3

PnL

+$51.63

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$25.57

PnL

+$18.5

Record

33%

6265-12990 (19255)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.66

Value

$22.07

PnL

+$6.41

Record

76%

11365-3529 (14894)

Rex416CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.47

Value

$8.88

PnL

+$4.4

Record

57%

2539-1923 (4462)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$1.54

Record

14-187 (201)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$1.55

Record

72%

8310-3186 (11496)

hideoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

76%

253-81 (334)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4887h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

40 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.