Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Slavia Prague win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $67 held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$66.66

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

1.4¢ → 0.1¢

-96% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$66.66

Total Shares133,316

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Gucky-45CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$731.7	$30	-$701.7	32% 652-1414 (2066)
DG DG-NOCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$425.61	$17.45	-$408.16	40% 653-974 (1627)
HOG993CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$146.65	$6.01	-$140.64	42% 506-685 (1191)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$201.22	$5.5	-$195.72	40% 2660-3917 (6577)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$150	$3.15	-$146.85	19% 49-213 (262)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$89.56	$2.21	-$87.35	12% 22-166 (188)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$44.8	$1.05	-$43.75	56% 3078-2425 (5503)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$14.54	$0.6	-$13.94	38% 495-815 (1310)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$945	$0.47	-$22.03	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$423.22	$0.21	-$9.3	38% 2935-4692 (7627)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.12	$0	-$0.12	48% 9263-10128 (19391)

Gucky-45CTR

Yes

Invested

$731.7

Value

$30

PnL

-$701.7

Record

32%

652-1414 (2066)

DG-NOCTR

Yes

Invested

$425.61

Value

$17.45

PnL

-$408.16

Record

40%

653-974 (1627)

HOG993CTR

Yes

Invested

$146.65

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$140.64

Record

42%

506-685 (1191)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$201.22

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$195.72

Record

40%

2660-3917 (6577)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$146.85

Record

19%

49-213 (262)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.56

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$87.35

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.8

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$43.75

Record

56%

3078-2425 (5503)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.54

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$13.94

Record

38%

495-815 (1310)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$945

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$22.03

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$423.22

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$9.3

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

9263-10128 (19391)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.