Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $81 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$80.69

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

2.3¢ → 0.1¢

-93% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$80.69

Total Shares53,134

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$426.74	$23.06	-$403.68	56% 252-195 (447)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$208.33	$11.25	-$197.08	19% 49-213 (262)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$90	$9.45	-$80.55	40% 653-974 (1627)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$171.23	$9.25	-$161.99	56% 18370-14706 (33076)
HOG993CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$63.72	$6.69	-$57.03	42% 506-685 (1191)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$78.56	$4.64	-$73.93	45% 2314-2842 (5156)
Gucky-45CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$42.86	$4.5	-$38.36	32% 652-1414 (2066)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$74.13	$4.22	-$69.91	41% 1399-2008 (3407)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.23	$3.98	-$49.59	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$127.17	$1.98	-$37.17	38% 2935-4692 (7627)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$2.8K	$0.99	$-1.4K	79% 10621-2765 (13386)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$440.89	$0.7	-$22.01	36% 1887-3307 (5194)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$426.74

Value

$23.06

PnL

-$403.68

Record

56%

252-195 (447)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$208.33

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$197.08

Record

19%

49-213 (262)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$80.55

Record

40%

653-974 (1627)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$171.23

Value

$9.25

PnL

-$161.99

Record

56%

18370-14706 (33076)

HOG993CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.72

Value

$6.69

PnL

-$57.03

Record

42%

506-685 (1191)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.56

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$73.93

Record

45%

2314-2842 (5156)

Gucky-45CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.86

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$38.36

Record

32%

652-1414 (2066)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.13

Value

$4.22

PnL

-$69.91

Record

41%

1399-2008 (3407)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$49.59

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.17

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$37.17

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,779.88

Value

$0.99

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

79%

10621-2765 (13386)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$440.89

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$22.01

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.