Consensus PnL $37K · win rate 44% (159–201, n=360) · was PM monthly #418 · holds 72 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$36.9K
Record
159W / 201L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 360 settled
Batting Avg
84.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1421
Source
PM monthly #418
Record (90 d)
13/152 · 9%
Trades
0
Markets
599
Volume
$564.1K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
72 in listed consensus markets · 62 of 72 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $59K · now 49¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 50)
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $16K · now 15¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $6.5K · now 3¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No $4.4K · now 97¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $4.3K · now 5¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (95% of 41)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $3.6K · now 16¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (82% of 57)
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $3.0K · now 94¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (18% of 35)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.6K · now 17¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (84% of 65)
Specialties
378 settled consensus markets · held side won 28% at an average entry of 27¢- NBA
+3 pts
side won 14% of 21 · avg entry 11¢
ROI −1%
- F1
+5 pts
side won 33% of 54 · avg entry 29¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+2 pts
side won 52% of 33 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 15% of 78 at an average 16¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 70%(won 4% of 263)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 53% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 70% of 23)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 92% of 77)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.