Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$21.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Entry

2¢ → 2.5¢

+22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares841,177

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

258 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$8.9K	$10.2K	+$2.0K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
WongKimArkCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$127.02	$4.0K	+$547.68	63% 217-127 (344)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$224.45	55% 1191-966 (2157)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$33.8K	$1.9K	$-7.9K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$267.48	$417.93	+$142.1	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
CarCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$270	$250	-$24.98	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13.5	$92.77	+$66.16	26% 351-985 (1336)
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$83.85	$78.86	-$72.79	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$30.41	$78.33	+$47.92	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FO FolletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$75	$75	-$1.5	69% 423-188 (611)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$7.15	$7.15	+$4.77	7% 14-187 (201)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.02	$0.1	+$0.08	41% 166-240 (406)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,875.01

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

WongKimArkCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.02

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$547.68

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,377.68

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$224.45

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$33,776.61

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$267.48

Value

$417.93

PnL

+$142.1

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$270

Value

$250

PnL

-$24.98

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$92.77

PnL

+$66.16

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.85

Value

$78.86

PnL

-$72.79

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.41

Value

$78.33

PnL

+$47.92

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

FolletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$75

PnL

-$1.5

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$4.77

Record

14-187 (201)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

258 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.6%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2690.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

2790.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.