Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $34K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$34.1K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 92.5¢

+33% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$32.5K

Total Shares35,168

Combined PnL+$7.4K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares20,988

Combined PnL$-5.1K

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 56% · 9

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 62.9¢	$7.7K	$11.2K	+$3.5K	66% 487-255 (742)
How.Dare.You	Noavg 69.7¢	$6.8K	$8.9K	+$2.2K	72% 815-323 (1138)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 84.2¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$191.54	77% 632-185 (817)
88 881112	Noavg 86¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$89.71	38% 567-944 (1511)
Imbafer	Noavg 62¢	$636	$943.75	+$312.87	56% 238-189 (427)
Gohst	Noavg 27.6¢	$270	$898.77	+$633.65	49% 738-770 (1508)
debased	Noavg 60.6¢	$597.22	$790.56	+$193.35	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$2.3K	$750.53	$-1.6K	50% 415-417 (832)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 75.3¢	$457.87	$644.34	+$125.08	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$2.5K	$479.1	$-2.0K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 89¢	$116.52	$118.76	+$2.24	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
CQ cqs<$100	Noavg 35¢	$36.47	$95.87	+$59.92	65% 228-122 (350)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 48.5¢	$461.57	$85.58	-$375.99	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
CarCTR	Yesavg 32.3¢	$320	$75	-$245	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$50	$72.85	+$23.25	49% 112-118 (230)
gopfan2CTR	Yesavg 70¢	$654.19	$70.09	-$584.1	51% 901-875 (1776)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 67.4¢	$42.17	$57.97	+$15.8	61% 839-544 (1383)
Rex416CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$195	$37.5	-$157.5	57% 2537-1923 (4460)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$40.98	$30.7	-$10.27	59% 986-684 (1670)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$89.4	$23.1	-$66.3	72% 1257-483 (1740)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$82	$22.5	-$59.5	66% 955-482 (1437)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$7,680.83

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

How.Dare.You

Invested

$6,765.39

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

72%

815-323 (1138)

alwaysOn

Invested

$6,772.23

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$191.54

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

881112

Invested

$1,696.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$89.71

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Imbafer

Invested

$636

Value

$943.75

PnL

+$312.87

Record

56%

238-189 (427)

Gohst

Invested

$270

Value

$898.77

PnL

+$633.65

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

debased

Invested

$597.22

Value

$790.56

PnL

+$193.35

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,341.63

Value

$750.53

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$457.87

Value

$644.34

PnL

+$125.08

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,507.09

Value

$479.1

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

ghorrock

Invested

$116.52

Value

$118.76

PnL

+$2.24

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

cqs<$100

Invested

$36.47

Value

$95.87

PnL

+$59.92

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$461.57

Value

$85.58

PnL

-$375.99

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$320

Value

$75

PnL

-$245

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$72.85

PnL

+$23.25

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

gopfan2CTR

Yes

Invested

$654.19

Value

$70.09

PnL

-$584.1

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$42.17

Value

$57.97

PnL

+$15.8

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Rex416CTR

Yes

Invested

$195

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$157.5

Record

57%

2537-1923 (4460)

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.98

Value

$30.7

PnL

-$10.27

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.4

Value

$23.1

PnL

-$66.3

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$59.5

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 21 top traders (57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 56% · 9

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.5%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.