Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 88.5¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares10,012

Combined PnL+$548.82

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares16,553

Combined PnL$-3.4K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 83¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$255.54	47% 476-535 (1011)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 81.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$143.28	89% 4653-547 (5200)
Mr-Krabs	Noavg 82.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$97.73	78% 574-165 (739)
VI VilgefortzCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$3.0K	$1.2K	$-1.7K	71% 196-82 (278)
SI simpleman	Noavg 82.9¢	$1.0K	$994.83	-$15.17	47% 456-520 (976)
KimJonEnCTR	Yesavg 65.9¢	$1.2K	$192.56	$-1.0K	75% 946-311 (1257)
SH shiifoo	Noavg 50.8¢	$15.25	$154.75	+$39.73	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 28.3¢	$163.7	$151.42	-$12.28	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
TheKinginYellow	Noavg 72¢	$120.64	$148.29	+$27.65	68% 830-398 (1228)
CQ cqsCTR	Yesavg 64.7¢	$463.01	$71.56	-$380.72	65% 228-122 (350)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Yesavg 66¢	$330	$50	-$272.5	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
debasedCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$32.82	$26.81	-$6.01	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
Optimus-CTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$18.14	$2.93	-$14.78	61% 1200-768 (1968)
AV aviato<$100	Noavg 82¢	$0.82	$0.89	+$0.07	84% 2440-449 (2889)

anoin123

Invested

$3,856.3

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$255.54

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,758.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$143.28

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

Mr-Krabs

Invested

$1,450.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$97.73

Record

78%

574-165 (739)

VilgefortzCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,011.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

simpleman

Invested

$1,030

Value

$994.83

PnL

-$15.17

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

KimJonEnCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,227.67

Value

$192.56

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

75%

946-311 (1257)

shiifoo

Invested

$15.25

Value

$154.75

PnL

+$39.73

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.7

Value

$151.42

PnL

-$12.28

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

TheKinginYellow

Invested

$120.64

Value

$148.29

PnL

+$27.65

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

cqsCTR

Yes

Invested

$463.01

Value

$71.56

PnL

-$380.72

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Yes

Invested

$330

Value

$50

PnL

-$272.5

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

debasedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.82

Value

$26.81

PnL

-$6.01

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

Optimus-CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.14

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$14.78

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

aviato<$100

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$0.07

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.