Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $672 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$671.69

Combined PnL

-$312.31

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 0.8¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$246.32

Total Shares248

Combined PnL-$0.12

Yes11 traders

Total Value$425.37

Total Shares56,716

Combined PnL-$312.2

No — 8%Yes — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

155 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99.3¢	$246.43	$246.32	-$0.12	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$206.6	$183.01	-$23.59	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$208.31	$116.89	-$128.84	41% 648-925 (1573)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.26	$42.05	+$10.51	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yes	$30.07	$30.07	-$101.82	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$31.24	$30.04	-$1.25	47% 83-94 (177)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$12.77	$9.02	-$11.97	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$2.5K	$8.45	-$51.95	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$2.66	$2.66	-$0.11	7% 14-187 (201)
HO HourglassCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$1.59	+$1.59	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$1.8K	$1.43	-$4.91	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.15	$0.15	+$0.15	86% 3499-571 (4070)

ghorrock

Invested

$246.43

Value

$246.32

PnL

-$0.12

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$206.6

Value

$183.01

PnL

-$23.59

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$208.31

Value

$116.89

PnL

-$128.84

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$42.05

PnL

+$10.51

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.07

Value

$30.07

PnL

-$101.82

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.24

Value

$30.04

PnL

-$1.25

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.77

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$11.97

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,521.8

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$51.95

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.11

Record

14-187 (201)

HourglassCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,086.74

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$1.59

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,750

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$4.91

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

155 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5398.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5498.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.