Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 18 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

18 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$5.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 1.7¢

+79% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares650,973

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

72 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$2.5K	$5.6K	+$3.1K	69% 987-450 (1437)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$1.1K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$829.27	$1.7K	+$702.54	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$395.49	$410.41	+$15.05	56% 973-769 (1742)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$167.68	$356.67	+$188.99	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$276	$340	+$64.31	57% 51-39 (90)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Yesavg 0¢	$3.23	$191.52	+$122.86	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
CarCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$220	$170	-$50	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$116.2	$116.2	+$62.8	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$48.03	$104.68	+$56.58	47% 83-94 (177)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$45.69	$49.42	+$3.73	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$34	+$34	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$25.5	+$19.59	58% 1153-825 (1978)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$18.89	+$18.89	26% 351-985 (1336)
FA FancyiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$18	$17	-$1	68% 56-26 (82)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$10	$10	+$0	57% 1113-837 (1950)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$602.01	$9.37	+$9.37	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$7.63	$7.63	+$7.63	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,458.76

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,920.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$829.27

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$702.54

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$395.49

Value

$410.41

PnL

+$15.05

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$167.68

Value

$356.67

PnL

+$188.99

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$276

Value

$340

PnL

+$64.31

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$191.52

PnL

+$122.86

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$170

PnL

-$50

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.2

Value

$116.2

PnL

+$62.8

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$48.03

Value

$104.68

PnL

+$56.58

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.69

Value

$49.42

PnL

+$3.73

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$34

PnL

+$34

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$19.59

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$18.89

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

FancyiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$17

PnL

-$1

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$602.01

Value

$9.37

PnL

+$9.37

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.63

PnL

+$7.63

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 18 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

72 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3464.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

3565.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.