Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 81¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$819.53

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 81¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,350

Combined PnL+$75.19

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares8,057

Combined PnL+$744.34

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

371h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 78.4¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$81.86	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
HorribleWorkARB<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$416.89	60% 465-309 (774)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.5¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$421.59
└ No leg	Noavg 81¢	$761.22	$761.22	+$4.7
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$300	$930.41	+$578.34	56% 836-645 (1481)
StarMaster	Noavg 76.9¢	$402.49	$404.99	+$2.5	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
88 881112	Noavg 86.4¢	$367.3	$351.1	-$14.65	38% 567-944 (1511)
LI lissartterARB<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$349.38	$345.21	-$4.17	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.7¢	$255.91	$241.87	-$5.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.3¢	$110.53	$103.33	+$1.48
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$203.88	$276.7	+$72.82	36% 397-691 (1088)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 18.5¢	$155.15	$159.7	+$0.34	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
Rex416	Noavg 78¢	$119.96	$124.54	+$4.58	57% 2537-1923 (4460)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.02	$102.05	+$97.04	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$48.44	$45.13	-$3.31	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$23.41	$24.31	+$0.9	61% 839-544 (1383)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$17.8	$16.91	-$0.89	67% 4165-2026 (6191)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$2,555.33

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$81.86

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

HorribleWorkARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,304.55

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$416.89

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

Both legs:

Yes$1,543.3325.5¢-$421.59

No$761.2281¢+$4.7

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$930.41

PnL

+$578.34

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

StarMaster

Invested

$402.49

Value

$404.99

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

881112

Invested

$367.3

Value

$351.1

PnL

-$14.65

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

lissartterARB<$100

Invested

$349.38

Value

$345.21

PnL

-$4.17

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Both legs:

No$255.9185.7¢-$5.65

Yes$110.5320.3¢+$1.48

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$203.88

Value

$276.7

PnL

+$72.82

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.15

Value

$159.7

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

Rex416

Invested

$119.96

Value

$124.54

PnL

+$4.58

Record

57%

2537-1923 (4460)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$102.05

PnL

+$97.04

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.44

Value

$45.13

PnL

-$3.31

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$23.41

Value

$24.31

PnL

+$0.9

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.8

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$0.89

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

371h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.