Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 19 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

19 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$-8.3K

Smart Money Entry

1.1¢ → 0.5¢

-54% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 19 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes19 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares1,380,750

Combined PnL$-8.3K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlavaUkrainiCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$6.8K	$3.2K	$-6.1K	71% 160-66 (226)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$121.76	38% 20-32 (52)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.8K	$470.72	$-1.3K	57% 766-585 (1351)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$619.34	$465.4	-$240.89	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$347.44	$399.91	+$52.47	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.1K	$361.51	-$699.67	82% 945-201 (1146)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$333.82	$333.82	-$133.33	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$179.57	$299.29	+$119.75	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$3.23	$56.28	-$12.31	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$49.68	$31.85	-$17.91	47% 83-94 (177)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$55.98	$17.94	-$36.3	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$16.66	+$16.66	26% 351-985 (1336)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$11.09	$11	-$0.09	68% 2074-957 (3031)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$10	+$10	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$7.5	+$1.59	58% 1153-825 (1978)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$637	$2.58	+$2.58	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$653	$2.3	+$2.3	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$2.02	$2.02	+$2.02	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.17	$0.09	-$0.08	45% 3592-4351 (7943)

SlavaUkrainiCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,837.16

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,123.19

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$121.76

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,801.31

Value

$470.72

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$619.34

Value

$465.4

PnL

-$240.89

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$347.44

Value

$399.91

PnL

+$52.47

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

scottiliciousCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,061.18

Value

$361.51

PnL

-$699.67

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$333.82

Value

$333.82

PnL

-$133.33

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$179.57

Value

$299.29

PnL

+$119.75

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$56.28

PnL

-$12.31

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.68

Value

$31.85

PnL

-$17.91

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.98

Value

$17.94

PnL

-$36.3

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$16.66

PnL

+$16.66

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.09

Value

$11

PnL

-$0.09

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$10

PnL

+$10

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$1.59

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$637

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$2.58

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$653

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$2.3

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$2.02

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.08

Record

45%

3592-4351 (7943)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 19 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

26 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6313.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

6414.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.