Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$286.32

Smart Money Entry

1.6¢ → 1.5¢

-8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares555,162

Combined PnL+$286.32

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

278 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$6.33	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$57.82	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$887.86	$887.86	+$425.82	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
KnureKnumeCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$502.45	$362.39	-$140.06	48% 400-434 (834)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$450.81	$328.39	-$122.41	56% 973-769 (1742)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$175	$150	-$24.97	57% 51-39 (90)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$100.02	$100.02	+$51.27	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$46.43	$89.28	+$42.78	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$49.96	+$49.97	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$30	+$30	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$22.5	+$16.59	58% 1153-825 (1978)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$13.89	$21.93	+$8.04	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR<$100	Yes	$0.6	$0.6	+$0.6	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.2	$0.3	+$0.1	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.06	$0.15	+$0.09	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,946.63

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$6.33

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,346.41

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$57.82

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$887.86

Value

$887.86

PnL

+$425.82

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

KnureKnumeCTR

Yes

Invested

$502.45

Value

$362.39

PnL

-$140.06

Record

48%

400-434 (834)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$450.81

Value

$328.39

PnL

-$122.41

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$175

Value

$150

PnL

-$24.97

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.02

Value

$100.02

PnL

+$51.27

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.43

Value

$89.28

PnL

+$42.78

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$49.96

PnL

+$49.97

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$30

PnL

+$30

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$16.59

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$21.93

PnL

+$8.04

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

NoMoreMisterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.09

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

278 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3749.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

3849.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.