Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 77¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$881.87

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 77¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares16,447

Combined PnL+$515.45

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares12,861

Combined PnL+$366.41

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

727h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123	Noavg 72.5¢	$6.0K	$6.4K	+$372.52	39% 196-304 (500)
FL flawfence	Noavg 75¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$117	46% 271-319 (590)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 27.6¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$262.14	47% 474-534 (1008)
Ryxon21	Noavg 73.1¢	$686.66	$723.3	+$37.1	71% 318-130 (448)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$284.84	$675.88	+$391.04	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
probability	Noavg 79.2¢	$651.57	$637.63	-$13.94	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TH TheImpasse	Noavg 76.4¢	$504.01	$507.81	+$3.47	22% 145-528 (673)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$217.76	$314.61	+$96.85	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$254.8	$298.35	+$43.55	57% 51-39 (90)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$43.73	$126.58	+$82.85	55% 1191-966 (2157)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$98.58	$95.78	+$1.66	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$99.71	$92.79	-$1.06	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
SU supersmardCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$19.8	$32.23	+$12.43	39% 46-71 (117)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$25.85	$15.49	-$0.71	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$7.72	$8.95	+$1.23	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

wan123

Invested

$6,018.23

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$372.52

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

flawfence

Invested

$4,280.67

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$117

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,568.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$262.14

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

Ryxon21

Invested

$686.66

Value

$723.3

PnL

+$37.1

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$284.84

Value

$675.88

PnL

+$391.04

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

probability

Invested

$651.57

Value

$637.63

PnL

-$13.94

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

TheImpasse

Invested

$504.01

Value

$507.81

PnL

+$3.47

Record

22%

145-528 (673)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$217.76

Value

$314.61

PnL

+$96.85

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$254.8

Value

$298.35

PnL

+$43.55

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$43.73

Value

$126.58

PnL

+$82.85

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.58

Value

$95.78

PnL

+$1.66

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.71

Value

$92.79

PnL

-$1.06

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

supersmardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.8

Value

$32.23

PnL

+$12.43

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$25.85

Value

$15.49

PnL

-$0.71

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.72

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$1.23

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

727h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.7%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.